Jan 6, 2016

Threat Cloud 2016

It's time to check again what a word cloud would reveal from different security predictions without reading the actual predictions. There are tons of (cyber) security predictions available from different organizations. I'm using the predictions from the same organizations I used for 2014 and 2015 word clouds in order to see the changes better: FireEye, Fortinet, Information Security Forum, Kaspersky, Microsoft, Sophos, Symantec, Trend Micro, WatchGuard and Websense,

The first word cloud is from the combined text of all predictions.



What's the conclusion from that? Mostly attacks against devices and data? Doesn't seem to differ much from last year. One change at least is that word mobile is not visible as it was last year, but Apple is.

The second was created using only the headlines from each prediction paper.



Not much change. It's a bit more clear that predictions included ransomware.

Some companies use "funny" headlines for their predictions (even Star Wars theme) which didn't make sense without reading the full text. Some predictions were even positive (!), but since most were about threats I didn't bother to make any difference between them.

So, in summary 2016 is predicted to bring us attacks against devices (IoT), more malware to take victim's data as hostage and Apple is expected to be a target.

Of course word cloud brings out only the common themes and lots of interesting threats are missed unless you actually read the papers. Problem is that I find many predictions biased and threats are all over the place depending who is making the predictions (and what solutions they are selling). I really would like to see a study analyzing different prediction papers and connections between threats and companies predicting them. Maybe even a study analyzing past predictions and their accuracy.

My favorite threat predictions come from the ISF, which are gathered from it's members and analyzed by the ISF team. Must say that I'm biased here, since I'm sitting on the ISF Executive Board. Favored ISF predictions even before that, though.

ISF Threat Horizon 2017 executive summary is available for download, the full paper is is free for members only. Here're the headlines for your convenience.



I advice you  not to focus too much on threats and media headlines. Threat info just add some spice to your daily security work.